Adlin Sinclair

Debate: Liveblogging

by hilzoy

I will try to liveblog this, even though I have no idea whether I’ll be any good at it.

9:03: Where do they stand on recovery plans?

9:06: Obama: I think he looks good: collected, forceful. States principles; ties current problems to Republican philosophy.

9:07: Though on reflection, he didn’t say where he stands on the specific packages; just principles.

9:08: McCain seems to me more rambling, but folksy. I don’t like this, but some people seem to. And why was it McCain who mentioned Kennedy first?

9:10: McCain apparently commits to voting for the plan.

9:12: McCain talks about Eisenhower, and the need to hold people accountable. Obama agrees. But says: not just when there’s a crisis.

9:14: Lehrer: are there fundamental differences about what McCain would do vs. what Obama would do to get us out of this crisis?

9:15: McCain: his answer goes on about earmarks and pork-barrel spending. I have no idea what this has to do with the present crisis.

9:17: Obama: earmarks are a pretty small part of domestic spending. McCain’s tax cuts for the rich are much, much bigger. His own tax cuts, for the middle class, would do more for economic growth.

9:20: McCain goes on and on about Obama’s earmarks, and the corruption of the system. Obama: eliminating earmarks alone will not get the economy back on track. It’s a continuation of the past eight years.

9:21: McCain: Business taxes: too high. Now he’s back on earmarks. Again.

9:22: Obama: I will cut taxes on everyone making $250,000. Business taxes: low on paper, but there are so many loopholes that it’s actually lower. McCain doesn’t want to eliminate these loopholes; just shovel more tax cuts to people.

9:24: McCain: Obama has voted for bills that have earmarks. Plus, he has voted to raise taxes on people making $42,000/year. Sigh.

9:26: New question: what will you have to give up because of financial rescue plan?

9:28: I’m going to stop summarizing for a moment. I think Obama is being basically clear; if he has a weakness, it’s moving through too many points. It’s as though he’s reading a very crisp outline, very quickly.

McCain, by contrast, is rambling, but in an aggrieved sort of way.

9:30: McCain, unlike Obama, promises an actual cut: ethanol subsidies. Also, reforming defense spending. He’s in his element there, although I have no idea how his use of defense spending jargon will go over with people.

9:34: McCain: a spending freeze on everything but veterans, defense, and — darn, I missed it. Obama: no, some programs are underfunded. Somehow or other, McCain has gotten onto nuclear power. How is a mystery.

9:36: Out of nowhere, McCain says that Obama’s plans will hand control of health care over to the federal government. (Huh?) Talks about cutting spending.

9:38: McCain has been consistently saying: look at our records. Obama: look, all this spending has occurred under a President you agreed with 90% of the time. You have voted for his budgets. McCain: people know me.

9:39: Question: what are the lessons of Iraq? McCain: the war was mishandled; now we are succeeding. Had we lost, the consequences would have been dire.

9:42: Obama: the question is whether we should have gone in there at all. I said no, for various reasons, including the fact that we had not finished the job in Afghanistan. Now, things are bad. We took our eye off the ball. Lesson: we should not hesitate to use military force to keep us safe, but we should use it wisely.

9:44: McCain: The surge has worked. And “incredibly — incredibly — “, Obama did not go to Iraq.

9:44: Obama: “John likes to pretend the war started in 2007.” Cites McCain’s mistakes. I think this was quite effective.

9:46: McCain: Obama doesn’t know the difference between strategy and tactics. Also: he will not acknowledge the success of the surge.

9:47: McCain says Obama voted to cut funding for troops. Obama says: we both voted against funding bills that had things we disagreed with.

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9:48: I think McCain came close to losing his temper.

9:50: New question: more troops to Afghanistan? Obama: yes.

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9:51: Obama brings up Pakistan.

9:53: McCain says he will not repeat mistake of abandoning Afghanistan. (Me: I thought he did that. In 2003.)

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9:56: Back and forth about what Obama said about Pakistan. Obama brings up various threats McCain has made.

9:57: Obama talks Pakistan. In my judgment, he’s quite astute.

9:59: McCain says Obama doesn’t understand Pakistan. Them for some reason, he goes over his entire history of war votes. He sounds earnest and sober. I have no idea what the point is.

Telling story of bracelet of dead soldier. She promised his mother her son’s death would not be in vain.

10:01: Obama: Presi …

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Jordan Ol’ School II

Earlier I linked to SLC Dunk for its interview with Mark Eaton. In the comments section there I…

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Earlier I linked to SLC Dunk for its interview with Mark Eaton. In the comments section there I asked if anyone remembered a commercial where Eaton spoke out against domestic violence. As I said there I once tried to reenact the commercial in 6th grade. I stood on a chair. Everyone was confused. Thankfully basketballjohn knew what I was talking about. Enjoy:

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Pew Research sees different polling results when cell phones are included

My wife’s younger siblings don’t have land lines. Several of my friends don’t have land lines either. Their cell phones are their only phones, and from what I’ve read, this is entirely normal for people my age and younger. So I’ve read claims that land line-only (LLO) polling is as accurate as land line plus cell phone polling with a bit if disbelief. And so it’s with great interest that I read a blog that hit my screen this morning from Future Majority.com that the Pew Research Center has identified a 2-3% shift in results in three Pew polls that were conducted twice each, one land lines only and the other land lines plus cell phones.

Polling organizations have been worried about the difference in results between the two different polling techniques for two basic reasons. The first is accuracy. As the Pew Research paper says, “U.S. government surveys estimated that about 15% of adults were ‘cell only’ in the fall of 2007 and the rate of increase since 2004 has been at least 2% a year, meaning that the number may be as high as 17% in this election cycle.” That’s a lot of adults who are being ignored in the polling data. Weighting factors to correct for statistically known differences between groups only work if the group being adjusted for has the same views on the poll as the groups actually polled. However, when the cell phone only group tends toward support for Obama over McCain, then the weighting factors used are simply wrong.

The second reason is cost. Calling land lines is cheap because polling organizations use computerized dialing programs. Using computerized dialing to dial cell phones is illegal, so polling organizations have to pay real people minimum wage or better to call each cell phone manually.

Michael Connery at FutureMajority.com is understandably concerned:

[I]f young voters are being underrepresented due to their cell-phone habits and likely voter screens, what will that mean for the accuracy of the polls leading up to election day? Could the pollsters be as wrong in 2008 as they were in 2004?

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The unfortunate answer is yes, the pollsters could easily be that wrong. In fact, given that there are about 8% more cell phone-only adults in 2008 than there were in 2004, the pollsters could be significantly more wrong than they were in 2004.

It’s good to know that many polling organizations are including cell phones when they perform their phone surveys. But I haven’t yet found a list anywhere of which polling organizations include cell phones and which ones don’t. Knowing this information alone might make the difference between whether a poll should be taken seriously or not.

Ultimately, though, Pew’s response to this new data is the only correct response:

[T]he Pew Research Center for the People & the Press will include cell phone samples in all of its remaining election polls.

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Emmy ratings plummet

Peter the great cruiser

Filed under: Ratings, Awards, Emmys, Reality-Free

in a surprise to nobody, ratings benefit of last night’s emmys broadcast flirted with all-time lows.an generally of 12.2 million viewers tuned in, which the l.a. times says is the lowest number since at least 1990. that’s down 6 percent from model year and, even worse, the show dropped 12 percent in adults 18-49 (the make fun in and dragnet bits didn’t boost, i’m sure).

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Graphic Concrete: Adding Life To A Big Ol’ Grey Slab

think concrete just has to be a hulking ol’ plain slab? not anymore… at least not in helsinki, where graphic clear-cut applies substance and imagery to what would ordinarily be a grand grey slab. they have devised a new way to produce a patterned concrete outside. the patented telling concrete technology involves applying a to all appearances retarder to the surface of a special membrane and this method allows real merchandise manufacturers to produce different types of high-quality patterned concrete elements and slabs.

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in addition to being patterned, the definite surface can also be smooth or in full exposed robust aggregate as well as tinted or stained a color. a photo or part can also be reproduced/ designed into the concrete as you last will and testament inquire about bid adieu in the following examples.you can select from several of their surface patterns or uniform with design your own. the effect looks great on both exteriors of buildings, interior walls, floors or installations.

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It’s the Thought that Counts

it’s beat to dispense with the partisan correctness — no witticism intended — and talk openly and honestly about something that’s been in the back of a lot of people’s minds for some time, but which no one has dared justly confront. in this election, there’s simply too much at interest due to the fact that any relevant subject to be considered off-limits to the well-intentioned, uniquely not when it sway have monumental ramifications to go to the future of this country. i’m talking about the kind of impact that could shake our nation to its very core and change the course of history — and not in place of the better.so we have to — we must — ask the question:is 72-year-old john mccain mentally fit to be president of the united states?mould night in an interview with spanish-owned union wireless, mccain seemed confused when asked whether he would be willing to invite spanish president josé luis rodríguez zapatero to the white house if he wins the presidency. up to that point, the conversation had focused on latin america and the anti-u.s. sentiment of leaders like hugo chavez and evo morales, allowing mccain to pour a boilerplate soundbite promising to stand with those who backing us and against those who don’t. but once the interviewer mentioned zapatero, mccain appeared to be thrown; he seemed, to anyone with ears and a planner, to not know lately who it was the reporter was talking about. he responded by repeating, a number of times, the same emblem exhortation: that he would embrace those who believed in democracy and “confront those that don’t.” he insinuated that spain is in latin america. then he started talking about mexico.i could try to fully put into words the uncomfortable and unnerving overall effect of what mccain said and how he said it, but fairly i’d never do it justice.listen with a view yourself.i really don’t middling to make gegenschein of this, but upon hearing that interview, my earliest thought was, “dear divinity, he needs a nap.” i found myself consciousness sorry for mccain because it was delayed and the appraisal was undeniable so taxing on him.but then i remembered what he hopes to adorn come of next january — the president of the united states.the leader of the free world.listening to mccain’s response — or lack thereof — to the reporter’s question about zapatero, the same of two scenarios is possible: either mccain really did confuse zapatero with ditty of the other latin american despots he had been talking back a occasional minutes earlier, or, and this is indeed much more shocking, he without pause publicly thumbed his nose at a u.s. friend — a on one’s feet colleague of nato that’s contributed troops to both iraq and afghanistan. if the latter is true (which mccain’s spokespeople are leaning toward, willingly prefer than admit an humiliating mistake) mccain just took a blisteringly hardline approach to spain’s new sway that not only defies the bush administration’s handling of the setting but stands against his own words from april of this year. (he told a newspaper that any problems between the u.s. and spain should be put aside.) a diplomat — someone with extrinsic system experience — simply doesn’t put-down an allied the man-of-regal the way mccain did, which would lead anyone with a clear madly to assume that mccain didn’t press a clear headmaster when he answered the question.and that’s the problem.over the past sundry months, we’ve seen and heard dozens of what are insouciantly euphemized as “gaffes,” as if they were simply inoffensive slips of the tongue: confusing al-qaeda with generic extremists; confusing iraq and afghanistan; confusing sunnis and shiites; claiming that troops in iraq were down to pre-roll levels when they weren’t; suddenly adjusting a major point in a story all round his captivity in vietnam that he’d told the same conduct because of years.or how about this:saying that the fundamentals of our economy are strenuous on a day the dow dropped 500 points, then attempting to correct himself by claiming that we’re in a “total crisis” the following day.forcefully rejecting the bailing out of aig joke day then enthusiastically embracing it the next.lying — yes duplicity — over and over again, even when his words can easily be disproved by anyone with an internet connection.or possibly worst of all: choosing sarah palin as his running lady after gathering with her just once and apparently without fully vetting her.sarah palin — the former small-town mayor and half-term governor with no foreign policy experience who would become president of the united states shou …

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Brad & Angelina Give Big to Ethiopia

brad pitt and angelina jolie continue to spread the wealth, as they have just donated $2 million to the global healthiness body to establish a center to aid children affected by tuberculosis and hiv/aids in ethiopia.

This will be the second place that Brangelina has helped established — the first being the Cambodian Health Committee’s Maddox Chivan Children’s Center in Cambodia. The new medical center,like the first, will provide medical, education and social services for children.

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“Our goal is to transfer the success we have had in Cambodia to Ethiopia where people are needlessly dying of tuberculosis, a curable disease, and HIV/AIDS, a treatable disease,” Angelina said in a statement.

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The Ethiopian branch will be named after Brad and Angie’s oldest daughter, Zahara,who was adopted from Ethiopia.”It is our hope when Zahara is older she will take responsibility of the clinic and continue its mission,” Brad said. Tuberculosis care will also be a main focus of the clinic. The disease causes approximately 2 million deaths yearly, and is the largest cause of death worldwide for children and adults with AIDS. “The fact that poor people continue to die in our world today of TB, a curable disease, because of lack of access to drugs and care is unacceptable,” Brad declared.

Are you really going to STILL be mad at them?

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Review: Supreme Commander (Xbox 360)

tank rushed.

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Laila Ali Knocks Out A Son

american gladiators host laila ali and her husband, former nfl dignitary curtis conway, be undergoing a little fighter on their hands.

Laila announced that Curtis Muhammad Conway Jr. was born August 26, weighing in at 6.8 lbs. and measuring 19 inches.

“Mama and baby are resting,” she wrote on her website.

This is the first child for the boxer and the fourth for the footballer. They’ve been married since 2007.

Congrats!

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(Video) Excerpts from Sarah Palin Interview With ABC

i surface just get pleasure from roger inferior about this interview. charlie gibson’s sneering imperious tone, looking down over the rim of his glasses like he some snobby authority made me a little sick. but, twisting her words into a fabrication of his own illogical fear of theocracy was head over heels insulting….especially after insisting those words …

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it’s angry to swear by that it’s been seven years since the star-crossed day that changed our nation forever. today marks the 7th anniversary of the september 11, 2001 attacks on the world merchandising center in nyc and the pentagon in washington dc. i believe that today is a day for reflection of what …

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